Forecasters attribute the calm to a strengthening El Niño and other atmospheric conditions
Category: Climate & Environment
As the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches in early September, millions of Americans are left pondering an unusual question: Why has the 2026 hurricane season been so quiet? With only two named storms reported and no hurricanes formed as of mid-August, the current season stands in stark relief against historical norms, where activity typically ramps up significantly during this time.
Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently updated their outlook for the 2026 hurricane season, predicting a below-normal season. Their prediction includes an expected range of seven to 13 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater, two to six of which could develop into hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater. This could also include as many as two major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater. These forecasts cover the entire season, which concludes on November 30, and account for the two tropical storms that have already formed: Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha.
Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, explains that the primary reason for the subdued activity is the strengthening El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal ocean waters in the tropical Pacific. This phenomenon can significantly affect weather patterns far away, including the Atlantic hurricane season. “Most activity occurs from late August to early October,” he said, noting that earlier ends to the season are common during below-normal years. “Consequently, some Atlantic activity is anticipated, just less than normal, with minimal activity expected during November.”
One of the major impacts of El Niño is increased vertical wind shear, which occurs when wind speeds or directions change significantly with altitude. This disruption creates an unfavorable atmosphere for storm organization and strengthening. “Hurricanes need a relatively calm atmosphere to organize and strengthen,” said Rosencrans. “When wind shear becomes too strong, developing tropical systems are often disrupted before they can become hurricanes.” In addition to El Niño, periods of Saharan dust and dry air have also been identified as factors that make it even harder for tropical systems to organize.
As of mid-August, the Atlantic Basin has produced a mere two named storms, Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha, neither of which intensified into hurricanes. This is particularly surprising for a time of year when tropical activity typically begins to escalate. The season is running behind average in terms of storm energy, indicating that Atlantic hurricane activity has been substantially suppressed compared to normal years.
The NOAA's updated outlook on August 6 reflects these observations, maintaining a forecast for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season. The agency predicts a 75% chance of below-normal activity, a 20% chance of near-normal activity, and just a 5% chance of above-normal activity. This updated outlook mirrors the initial predictions issued in May.
Ahead, the question remains: Could hurricane activity still increase as we approach the peak of the season? The answer is a cautious yes. Seasonal outlooks provide a general picture of total activity across the Atlantic, but they do not predict whether a specific area will experience a storm. NOAA emphasizes that even a below-normal season can still produce a damaging or deadly hurricane. “It only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster,” they state in their seasonal outlook.
Forecasters will continue to monitor whether El Niño remains strong enough to suppress storm development through late August, September, and October. If atmospheric conditions become more favorable, tropical activity could rapidly increase during what is historically the busiest period of the year. The peak hurricane season typically sees over 85% of Atlantic tropical cyclones form during August, September, and October, with the climatological peak around September 10.
Rosencrans cautions that a quiet season does not equate to a lack of risk. “A below-normal season doesn’t mean there will be no storms or that it’s impossible to have major impacts or damage during a slow year,” he said. He points to past hurricanes, such as Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and Hurricane Joaquin in 2015, both of which occurred during seasons with below-average activity. For residents along the Gulf Coast and Southeast, preparation remains key. “For Augusta, people should prepare as they would in any other year,” he advised, highlighting that inland communities face risks primarily from heavy rainfall, which can lead to flooding.
NOAA encourages everyone to stay informed and prepared for the hurricane season, regardless of the current activity level. For those looking for guidance on how to prepare, resources are available at www.noaa.gov/hurricane-prep and www.ready.gov/hurricanes. As the peak of the hurricane season approaches, it’s important to remain vigilant and ready for any developments, even in a quieter year.
In the end, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season serves as a reminder that unpredictability is a hallmark of nature. Even as El Niño creates conditions that suppress storm development, the potential for a sudden shift remains. With the peak season nearly upon us, vigilance and preparedness are as important as ever.