Experts urge reevaluation of earthquake protections as new methods emerge for predicting seismic activity
Category: Health
In the aftermath of devastating earthquakes in Colombia and Venezuela, experts are emphasizing the importance of reassessing earthquake preparedness. The recent M7.4 earthquake in Colombia, which caused an estimated $9.6 billion in damages, is a stark reminder of the seismic risks faced by regions along complex tectonic plate boundaries. Richard Keegan, head of retro at Willis Re, highlights the need for improved earthquake protections, stating, "Now’s the time to re-evaluate your earthquake protections." This sentiment resonates particularly strongly in light of the recent seismic events that have rattled South America.
The 2026 earthquake in Colombia was not an isolated incident. Just 47 days prior, a doublet of earthquakes measuring M7.2 and M7.5 struck Venezuela, resulting in approximately $37 billion in direct physical damage. These events occurred within well-characterized fault zones, underscoring the necessity for effective risk management strategies in earthquake-prone areas. Keegan notes that advancements in seismology have enhanced our ability to identify where damaging earthquakes are likely to occur, providing clearer insights into potential losses.
Recent developments in earthquake research have led to innovative methods for predicting where the largest earthquakes are most likely to strike. Scientists at UC Riverside have pioneered a technique that identifies locked fault regions storing energy along subduction zones, which are known to produce some of the most powerful earthquakes on Earth. Their model successfully pinpointed the exact section of the Kamchatka subduction zone where a Mw 8.8 earthquake occurred in 2025.
According to Gareth Funning, a geophysicist involved in the study, "Earthquakes capture headlines when they happen, but for years beforehand the fault is quietly accumulating strain." By utilizing GPS measurements of subtle ground movement, this method offers a new tool for improving disaster preparedness in high-risk areas. It can help identify where stress has been building along major faults, allowing for more effective long-term planning.
As scientists strive to improve earthquake prediction, similar challenges exist in hurricane research. The boundary layer of a hurricane, which spans just one to two kilometers above the surface, remains largely unstudied due to safety concerns for crewed aircraft. Ipshita Dey, an atmospheric scientist, refers to this area as "the most underobserved part of the hurricane," noting its significance in storm intensification.
NOAA researchers have turned to alternative methods, deploying parachuted sensors and remotely operated drones to gather data. Yet, these approaches still face limitations. For example, airborne sensors cannot provide continuous measurements, and surface instruments often capture only intermittent data. Ground-based sensors, like those used during Hurricane Isaac in 2012, have shown promise in filling gaps left by existing tools. During Isaac's landfall, seismoacoustic sensors detected localized pressure fluctuations, offering valuable insights into atmospheric turbulence.
In light of the increasing seismic threats, local initiatives are stepping up to educate communities about earthquake preparedness. On September 12, the Monrovia Historic Preservation Group and the Monrovia Fire Department will host the 7th Annual Earthquake Workshop at the Monrovia Public Library Community Room. This free event aims to equip residents with practical steps to improve their emergency readiness.
Participants will learn how to prepare their households for a catastrophic earthquake, emphasizing the importance of community involvement and education in disaster preparedness. Advance registration is required due to limited space, and refreshments will be provided to attendees. Such workshops are instrumental in fostering a culture of preparedness, enabling communities to respond effectively in the face of natural disasters.
One of the key challenges highlighted by experts is the protection gap that exists in many regions. Excess-of-loss treaties typically attach at levels that are catastrophic in regions like North America or Japan but may not be triggered by equally severe events in areas with lower insured values. This disparity leaves many regions vulnerable to substantial economic and societal impacts following seismic events.
Willis Re's retrocession team is working to address this issue by helping risk carriers optimize their retrocession programs through innovative risk transfer solutions. By developing products that are tailor-made for local market conditions, they aim to improve financial resilience and reduce the economic burden of future earthquakes. Keegan emphasizes the importance of leveraging scientific research and advancements in catastrophe modeling to strengthen outward reinsurance protection.
As scientists continue to refine their models and improve our collective earthquake preparedness, it is clear that collaboration between researchers, risk managers, and communities is more important than ever. By embracing new technologies and fostering a culture of preparedness, we can mitigate the risks posed by these natural disasters.
In a world where seismic events are becoming increasingly common, the call to action is clear: reassess your earthquake protections, stay informed, and engage with community initiatives. The next earthquake could strike at any moment, and being prepared can make all the difference.